Category: Tactical Analysis

Indian Wells Match Report: Marketa Vondrousova – Aryna Sabalenka (3rd round)

This match, viewed by some as “a look at the future of the WTA,” featuring two of “the rising stars of women’s tennis,” for good reasons, did not quite live up to the hype in terms of scoreline, but was rich in nuance, thus highly informative with regard to both players’ strengths and shortcomings.

Let me first repeat that which some casual fans may not know about these two players. As I said in my first-round analysis of Marketa Vondrousova’s win over the American Madison Brengle, the eighteen-year-old Czech player is a talented left-handed player, ranked 54 in the world. The 63rd-ranked Aryna Sabalenka is nineteen years old and has improved by leaps and bounds over the last few months. Both players are making their first appearances at the BNP Parisbas Open in Indian Wells. So you can imagine how high the stakes were for them in this match as they stepped on the court at 11 AM, California time. Let’s also not forget the $88,175 prize money for the fourth-round qualifier, a little under what Vondrousova has earned this year so far and a little over that of Sabalenka.

The match pitted two players with contrasting styles. You had the crafty Vondrousova who possesses a wide repertoire of shots in her arsenal, facing a powerful hitter in Sabalenka who, when clicking on all cylinders, is capable of blowing her opponent off the court so fast that the opponent may never get the chance to put her skills to use. Of course, the downside of Sabalenka, or any player with that style, is that her errors can pile up just as quickly as she can produce winners.

Unfortunately for Aryna, that is precisely what happened in the early games of this match.

Sabalenka began the match on her serve and won the first point with one of her favorite patterns, a hard first serve followed by a winner on the next shot, your basic 1-2 punch. The first minute must have pleased her fans, especially when she hit a second-serve ace to lead 40-15. Then, things turned sour. She lost the next four points and her service game.

She committed four unforced errors (three in the net, one deep) in that first game, three of them on winner attempts from inside the court. To add salt to the wound, Vondrousova’s return clipped the net and dropped over for a winner at deuce. When the game ended, the commentator called it a “dream start for Vondrousova.” The more accurate description would have been “a nightmarish start for Sabalenka.” Unfortunately, she was just getting started with this nightmare.

Photo: Ryan Pierse – Getty Images (Jan 2018)

Sabalenka made three more errors in the next game, all deep this time, two on eminently makeable returns and one on a winner attempt from inside the baseline. Vondrousova’s break was confirmed with a blank hold. She led 2-0.

By the time Sabalenka began the third game with another winner attempt from inside the baseline that went in the net and followed it up with a double fault to go down 0-30, alarm bells were already ringing. Vondrousova added two fine forehand winners and Sabalenka found herself down two breaks, at 0-3, ten minutes into the match. The rapid slide needed to stop, she asked for her coach Magnus Tideman.

Tideman was positive, trying to lift her spirits: “long way to go”; “no problem.” He told her to “play higher over the net” and repeated it again, “you need height.” He felt that Vondrousova was “playing too good on the flat ones.” It was true that out of the five errors Sabalenka made so far during rallies, four were in the net, below the tape level. Three of the four “out” errors came on returns and Vondrousova’s wicked left-handed spin may have had something to do with that.

The errors in the net, however, were straight-forward glitches by Tideman’s player. Perhaps he added the last part (about Vondrousova playing the flat balls well) in order to avoid saying “you are missing too much in the net and need to add some margin.” Of course, I am speculating, but sometimes, as a coach, you want to tell your player to change something, not by reminding them how they have failed at it thus far, but rather by saying that it favors the other player, although it may only be partially true.

In any case, Tideman was one-hundred percent right about the margin of error over the net. The question is, can Sabalenka play that type of game, the kind where she has to mix in some loopy, spin shots that make the ball bounce high? Would that not be out of her game’s character? For a player who consistently goes full-force on virtually every shot for high-risk flat winners, can she feel at ease doing anything else? I certainly have my doubts, and it certainly did not take place in this occasion.

At 0-15 in the following game, Sabalenka went for another flat, hard, cross-court backhand that smashed below the tape in the net. On game point at 40-15, she went for another backhand flat-liner, this time from deep behind the baseline and her body falling back. It landed, yet again, in the net. In fact, she played those five points as if she never heard what her coach told her at the game change. There had been no adjustments in her game, no added margin to clear the net, and the scoreboard showed 4-0 in her opponent’s favor.

Sabalenka finally held serve (not because of high-bouncing balls) and got on board in the fifth game, but chances for a comeback in this set disappeared quickly when she missed four straight returns to go down 1-5.

How bad did it get for Sabalenka in this first set on returns? She only won three points on Vondrousova’s serves, two of them coming at 5-2 40-0 down to save two set points before losing it on the third. And this is with Vondrousova serving at 37% first serves in the set!

Speaking of Vondrousova and her serve, make no mistake, despite the low percentage, she relentlessly kept on varying the speed and placement of her serves, as well as the amount of spin on them. That had as much to do with Sabalenka’s disarray on returns as her slow start did. In fact, after a second watch, I can specifically confirm that Marketa never hit the same type of serve twice in a row throughout the set. It was about as great an example as you can have, to show that stats alone – 37% first serves for the first set – do not always reflect reality and that in-person observation is necessary for sound judgment.

On another note, Vondrousova committed only three unforced errors** and one double fault in the first set. She ran every ball down, kept hitting every shot deep, essentially sending a message to her Belarusian opponent that she was ready to make her come up with the goods to earn the victory.

**Side note 1 —-> The number of unforced errors is my own count. Essentially, these are shots, three for Vondrousova in this case, that the player should make without much trouble. I do not know what the official number is, not that I can find it anywhere, nor would I completely trust it if did (reasons to be discussed another time). And yes, I count unforced errors and double faults separately!

I have spent most of my analysis of the first set, talking about Sabalenka. It’s time to give Vondrousova the credit that she duly deserves, especially for what she accomplished during a sequence of about ten minutes in the middle part of the second set. It started when she was serving at 1-2 and the score was deuce.

Because, you see, when the score was 1-2 in games, it was the first time in the match that Vondrousova trailed in the game count within a set. Furthermore, it came on the heels of two games in a row won by Sabalenka, the Belarusian’s first positive streak of the match.

Vondrousova had broken Sabalenka’s serve to start the second set, and right when it had appeared as if she was about to run away with the match, she had played her first dismal game of the match, on her serve, no less. When Sabalenka had followed that up with her best game and held serve to go up 2-1, everyone in the stadium and watching on TV could see that she was pumped up. Her body language had turned positive and she was getting more and more vocal after each point in her favor.

And the 2-1 game had indeed started brightly for her when Vondrousova served two double faults in the first five points and let Sabalenka back to deuce. But at deuce, where many other players would have had doubts creeping in, hesitated with their shots, and shown bursts of negative emotions, the eighteen-year-old Marketa became a mental giant. She first got one of her fastest first serves in to force an error out of her opponent. It was immediately followed by the most animated “come on” (or the equivalent in her language) that Vondrousova let out in the match. Then, she ended up scrambling all over the court to win what was probably the longest – certainly the best – point of the match, an 18-shot rally that Sabalenka would have won at least twice against most other players.

Photo: Quinn Rooney – Getty Images (Jan 2018)

Vondrousova weathered the storm. It was 2-2, on serve. The next game showed that Sabalenka, for her part, was no longer feeling the same as she did when she had gone up 2-1. At 15-30, she double-faulted, then at 15-40, she slammed a forehand in the net to lose her serve. That should not take away anything from the fact that in that game, Vondrousova hit four terrific returns and a forehand winner from a difficult position. She now led by a break at 3-2. It was time for Sabalenka to consult once again with her coach.

Once again, Tideman tried to give positive messages: “Now you’re returning much better, now it’s a match!” ; “The first set was too quick” ; “Now it’s much better.” He also advised her on two separate occasions between the encouragements, to go back to the same corner twice to catch Vondrousova on her backfoot**.

**Side note 2 —-> I noted above that when Tideman visited Sabalenka in the first set, it seemed like Sabalenka never heard his advice. I can’t tell how much she took heed in his advice this time. She did actually try to go behind Marketa twice in the second point of the ensuing game. Then, she tried it again once at 2-4, 30-30. That’s two points out of 19 they played from his visit at 3-2 to the end of the match. You decide.

With Vondrousova leading 3-2 and 30-0, Sabalenka hit a return that landed on the back of the baseline but the line judge called it out. Sabalenka challenged it, and it was overturned. The referee awarded the point to her because Vondrousova had hit the next shot in the net. Vondrousova argued, for a little while, that the point should be replayed and that she missed it due to the call. But the umpire rightfully refused (Marketa did indeed hit her shot before the line judge made the call). She needed to forget about it and move on. She missed her first serve. When you thought she might be unnerved by the call, she pulled an exquisite second serve that landed close to the “T” but had so much side spin that that it sharply curved into Sabalenka’s body who missed the return. One point later, another return miss by Aryna, and Marketa was now leading 4-2.

In that sequence, from 1-2 deuce to 4-2 up, Vondrousova showed no signs of nerves, made no unforced errors, and manifested a sharp awareness of the turning points of the match. Even when she went from seeing the finish line to staring at going down a break against a streaky opponent, she stood tall and avoided making rash decisions.

The match lasted one hour and one minute. Vondrousova won 6-2 6-2 and moved on to the fourth round where she will face the unseeded Petra Martic.

Until the next one, enjoy BNP Parisbas Open!

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Indian Wells Match Report: Denis Shapovalov – Ricardas Berankis (first round)

We often hear that “stats can be misleading.” This phrase is indeed a misguided assumption. It can only be true if the person looking at the statistics of the match in question views them as nothing more than sheer numbers without engaging their critical thinking. It is a rare occurrence at best. In reality, the evaluator’s personal observations of the match, influenced by his/her expert knowledge of tennis, mobilize a certain level of critical thinking that should lead to a healthy post-match analysis. Stats can be useful ingredients during such process, but they merely play a complementary role to the two main components, personal observation and critical thinking. To be blunt, it is very possible to do a sound analysis of a match using these two components alone. It is, by contrast, highly improbable that the same can be done if we lacked one of the two components, even if we had every numerical data at our disposal.

Thursday’s first-round match between the left-handed Denis Shapovalov (Canada, ranked no.44) and the qualifier Ricardas Berankis (Lithuania, ranked no.106) provides a good example of how numbers can be misguiding if stats are mainly taken into account.

Photo: Jeff Gross – Getty Images

In the first game of the match, Shapovalov made his first serve only once in six total points, double-faulted once, yet still managed to hold serve. In the third game at 1-1, he committed another double fault, only hit half of his first serves in, but held serve again. In the fifth game at 2-2, he double-faulted twice to start the game and still dug himself out of the hole and held serve.

In fact, when the scoreboard showed 3-2, it almost seemed miraculous that Denis would still be on serve. Thus far in three serving games, stats showed that he committed four double-faults and got only seven out of seventeen first serves in at 41%. I prefer to say the following: Denis Shapovalov was serving so well that even at 41% first serves and four double faults, he had yet to face a break point and lost only one point on his serve outside of the four double faults.

Because, you see, the numbers could not tell you the story of how well Shapovalov was placing the first and second serves that he was getting in, how much variation his serves had in terms of spin and speed, or how many errors Berankis was making on returns as he would try to adjust to the different bounces coming off the Canadian’s wicked combination of flat, slice, and kick serves.

Neither could the numbers tell the story of what precisely happened in the four points that followed when Denis went down 0-30 at 2-2, after the two successive double faults. At 0-30, Shapovalov got in a high-kicking second serve that forced Berankis to hit a defensive return, eventually leading to a forehand winner by Denis. At 15-30, Shapovalov hit a slice first serve to the outside corner of the box, stretching Berankis to the outside of the court and forcing him to float the one-handed backhand out. At 30-30, Shapovalov struck a hard serve to the “T” that Berankis could not get back in the court. Finally, at 40-30, Shapovalov hit a clean ace to the outside, for good measure, and closed out the game.

Stats were showing a “bad serving day” for Shapovalov. To a careful observer however, it was clear that Berankis was having a “nightmare returning day,” precisely because of Shapovalov’s serving skills. Do you believe that, after Shapovalov held and went up 3-2, Berankis was getting edgy thinking what he would do if Shapovalov’s first serve began to truly click, considering how much trouble the Canadian’s “un-clicking” serve was already giving him? You bet he was! And that anxiety showed in the ensuing sixth game.

The same Berankis that cruised through his first two service games without losing a point became restless. He committed his first double-fault at 30-15. He escaped a break point at 30-40 with what was probably his best point of the match, a long rally ending with his forehand winner to the deuce corner. He squandered two chances to hold serve before saving another break point. Then, the pressure finally got to Berankis. He double-faulted a second time in the game on the fourth deuce point and gave Shapovalov his third chance to break. Berankis then missed a fairly routine backhand cross-court wide, and Denis was now out in front 4-2.

To confirm the break, Shapovalov served three successive first serves in, winning the ensuing rallies in each point, to go up 40-0. To finish the game, Shapovalov kicked a second serve so high that Berankis swung and almost completely missed the ball, his racket frame barely clipping the ball behind him. It was very symbolic of the havoc that Shapovalov’s serve was causing on the Lithuanian.

Yet, when the set ended 6-3 in Shapovalov’s favor, his serving numbers were unimpressive. He served at 48% first serves, recorded two aces and four double faults. It was rather the placement and the variation of both his first and second serves that did the damage not the amount of aces or first serves that he got it in the box.

Photo: Cameron Spencer – Getty Images (Jan 2018)

It was déjà vu in the second set, except that Berankis did try to attack more by coming to the net. The problem was that he could never solve the puzzle of Shapovalov’s serves. For example, when he was leading 3-2 and 0-15 on Shapovalov’s serve, he tried to attack on a second serve that kicked so high that he had to jump up to hit it and missed it deep. On the next point, Shapovalov’s terrific first serve earned a return error from Berankis again. At 30-15, another solid second serve eventually led Denis to finish the point at the net. At 40-15, yet another second serve forced Berankis to miss the backhand return wide. Do you notice a pattern?

It is not the kind of pattern in which a player holds serves by simply serving aces or powerful serves. It is a singular type of service domination, one where the server hits double-faults, only a handful of aces, yet manages to completely derail the opponent’s returns. This is not to say that Shapovalov is not capable of doing the first pattern. He did it at 3-4 in the second set, by winning the game in 62 seconds, thanks to three aces and one winning second serve.

Berankis finally cracked on his serve at 4-4. A double fault and two unforced errors from the baseline were enough to give Shapovalov a chance to serve for the match at 5-4. Of course, Denis obliged, winning the game and the match 6-3 6-4. He will face the 30th-seeded Pablo Cuevas in the second round.

Side note 1
Shapovalov finished with 25/53 first serves for 47%, but out of the 25 points that he started with his first serve, he only lost three. Not counting the five double faults, he only lost six points when having to start the point with a second serve. Variety and placement are the essentials here, not power and stats. Looking at first-serve percentage, and the number of aces and double faults, one could easily say that Denis had a “bad serving day.” The truth is, his serves played the leading role in his victory.

Side note 2
Shapovalov rarely uses the slice on backhand returns. Even when reaching for the ball, he seldom blocks or slices the ball back in the court. It’s a questionable choice in my opinion, especially considering that one-handed backhand hitters have stronger wrists and better control of the racket head when forced to hit a stretched one-handed backhand. A slice return could also come in handy when facing a powerful server. Trying to muscle a one-handed return over the top of the ball on a serve coming to you like a bazooka may prove costly. I can only assume Denis and his coaching know something others don’t because he has been doing this for almost two years with little sign of integrating the slice into his backhand returns.

Side note 3
It never ceases to amaze me how well Berankis serves for a player of his size.

Side note 4
Shapovalov rarely tries a regular drop shot during a rally. Maybe it will come with time, but seeing his finesse skills at the net, I would be surprised if he does not develop his drop shots.

On an unrelated note, I would like to thank all those who provided wonderful, positive, and encouraging feedback/comments via social media and private messages on my previous match report from Wednesday.

Until the next one, enjoy BNP Parisbas Open!

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Indian Wells Match Report: Marketa Vondrousova – Madison Brengle (first round)

Many variables come into play when one considers which WTA or ATP athletes one enjoys watching, but I would guess that most viewers of tennis roughly belong to the following four categories (not denying the possibility that some slight overlaps among them may exist).

There are those people who watch tennis for professional reasons. They could be writing or reporting on matches for the media, conducting a study, or representing a sponsor. There are those who center their interest on fanship around one specific player. They watch, for the most part, his/her matches and perhaps a few of his/her main competitors – in the hopes that they lose, naturally. To these fans, little else in the world of tennis matters, including the sport itself. A third group of viewers prefer to only watch the largest tennis events, such as the Majors, because they are mainly interested in seeing the best players in the world perform. Finally, there are others who enjoy watching tennis players perform at any professional tournament, simply because they love the sport and genuinely find it pleasurable to watch a competitive tennis match.

I would like to believe that I belong to the last category of tennis viewer noted above. I can watch any tennis match from the very first point to the last and get a thrill out of its “story.” And yes, every match has a story, regardless of the score. I must nevertheless admit that I do enjoy watching a few players more than others. It could simply be the result of a personal connection to the player or their style appealing to me as an ex-player, ex-coach, or simply as a tennis fan. Throughout the Spring season, leading up to Roland Garros, I will attempt to write as many match reports as possible, involving some of these types of players. I will also add, if needed, some useful “side notes” at the bottom of each match report.

The talented eighteen-year-old Marketa Vondrousova is one of those. In case you have never seen her play, the 54th-ranked Czech is a left-handed player with a strong first serve and a fine touch. She uses a two-handed backhand and plays mostly from the baseline, although she will not avoid approaching the net if given the chance.

Photo: Robert Cianfrone – Getty Images (Jan 2018)

Vondrousova began her BNP Parisbas Open campaign in Indian Wells against the 76th-ranked American Madison Brengle. Both players held serve to begin the match, but you could already see signs of Vondrousova’s plan when, in four out of the first five points of her serving game (including the double-fault on the second point), she used slice serves curving away from Brengle’s backhand. It is nothing unusual for left-handed players to work the outside corner of the service box on the advantage side to move the opponent off the court so that the winner to the open deuce side becomes available for the next shot. Yet, Vondrousova used the same slice serve also on the deuce side and showed from very early on that she would seek to earn short returns from the outstretched backhands of Brengle in order to either control the ensuing rallies, or hit a winner with the second shot of the 1-2 punch (example: the very first point of the match on her serve at 0-1).

One area of Marketa’s game that remains error-prone at times is the return of serve. It was nevertheless her returns, mixed with a bit of luck, that earned her the first break of the match. At 1-1 and 30-0 for Brengle, Vondrousova hit three aggressive forehand returns in a row over the next three points. The first one forced the American into an error on the next shot. The second one put her in a defensive position enough to commit one later in the rally. The third hit the net and dropped over for a winner. Vondrousova was now up 30-40. She squandered that break point on a forehand mishit that sailed up and out. She earned a second one later after she nailed a sharply angled cross-court-backhand return that eventually led to her winning the point two shots later. She would capitalize on that ensuing second break point and go up 2-1. More on her returns a bit further.

Once down a break, Brengle began stepping into the court and accelerating her down-the-line shots, usually one of her game’s strengths. But the one she missed at 1-3 down, serving at 15-0, did not help her cause. She also attempted to come to the net behind short balls and pressure Vondrousova’s forehand (her weaker side by a thin margin). Yet, to apply that pressure, you have to first start the point. And the two double faults in that game, first at 15-15 and the second to squander a game point later, only served to lead to another break against her.

In the meantime, Vondrousova was continuing her all-around solid, but not perfect, returning performance. By the time she won the first set 6-2, she was allowing Madison to win only 40% of her first-serve points. When the match ended one hour seven minutes after it began, that number decreased further to 38%. Brengle fared better on points started with her second serve, mainly because Vondrousova risked and missed more, thus the “but not perfect” clause in the first sentence of this paragraph.

Brengle continued to search for solutions after losing the first set. Her best opportunity to turn the tide came early in the second set when she was leading 1-0 and had two break points (see also side note no.1). She committed a forehand unforced error in the net on the first one. Vondrousova moved in on a floater and hit one of her several forehand swing-volley winners of the day to save the second. She finally held with a well-placed first serve into the body that jammed Brengle’s forehand.

The curtains seemed to be coming down on Brengle in the very next game when Vondrousova played her best tennis of the match to go up a break again. As a matter fact, you want an example of her versatility without having to watch a long game? Watch this one. A thunderous, inside-out forehand return gives her the first point. At 0-15, a long rally takes place. Marketa eventually nails the flat forehand down-the-line to Madison’s deuce corner. Madison gets it back but the ball lands short. Marketa moves forward, slices the low backhand approach inside-out, spinning away from Madison on the ad-side. Madison cannot get the ball back and now it is 0-30. After the American misses a backhand to go down 0-40, Marketa breaks her serve on a point that ends with her accelerating a flat backhand cross-court and sneaking to the net behind it to win it on a backhand volley punctuated by an overhead.

Brengle is a fighter though. She responded with her own best returning game of the match to earn her only break of the match and get back on serve at 2-2. As if Vondrousova needed luck to seal the deal for her, in the first two points in that game, her shots clipped the net and dipped on Brengle’s side of the court for winners. Vondrousova would break to go up 3-2 and would do it again after tightly contested seventh game to go up 5-2. The second break, ending on a backhand error did truly shut the curtains on Brengle. Two minutes later, the scoreboard would read 6-2 6-2 and Vondrousova would be on her way to face the 11th-seeded Johanna Konta in the next round.

Side note no.1

Juniors should take heed of what Vondrousova did at 0-1 down in the second set. She had a game point at 40-30, only to double fault twice and go down a break point at ad-out. Vondrousova served perhaps her safest first serve of the match to get the ball in the service box and avoid at all costs the prospect of facing another second serve. Remember that losing that point would have given Brengle a break and a 2-0 lead in the second set and possibly turned around a match that had been one-sided in Vondrousova’s favor until then. This tactical decision by Marketa only makes sense. It is not some wondrous secret to other tennis players or coaches either. Yet, it remains rarely practiced and under-rated.

It does not matter that you rarely double-fault or that your first serves earn you a slew of free points. In that type of situation, following a double-fault or two, your first priority is to avoid the “oh-dear-what-if-I-do-it-again” apprehension that will undoubtedly slip in the center of your brain and grow there within a matter of seconds, if you miss the first serve. Get that first serve in, period!

Side note no.2

Vondrousova has the habit of bending down and grabbing her knees to catch her breath after long points (example: 0-1 in the second set, deuce). It is perfectly understandable that she is exhausted after a taxing point, however, I have always been for the idea that you should hide all indications of physical condition from your opponent as much as you can. And this is a case where you can do that by walking around, breathing deeply, and/or going for the towel. Bending over and resting your hands on your knees basically shows your opponent that you may not be fully recovered by the time the next point begins or that you are not as fit as you may have looked otherwise. While either or both of those cases may well be true, there is no need to telegraph that to your opponent.

Until the next match report, enjoy BNP Parisbas Open 2018 !

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ATP Finals Saturday: Goffin Happened

David Goffin pulls the shocker, defeats Roger Federer 2-6 6-3 6-4

What constitutes a shocking upset? There are many components to it, but the three major ones in my opinion are when the match pits two players where one has clearly dominated the other in their previous encounters, it takes place on one of the favorite player’s surfaces in one of his favorite events, and it initially takes shape as expected, meaning the favorite player showcases his skills, looks unbeatable, repeats successfully the patterns seen in their previous matches, subsequently grabbing a commanding lead while the underdog seems to look helpless.

And then, the improbable (or the impossible) happens. The match turns around completely, and stays that way for an extended period of time while most people are constantly expecting at any time that it will “soon reset back to normal.” Yet, it never does. It continues to the bitter end.

This is virtually the scenario we saw today in London with Goffin and Federer. There was also the added pre-match nuance about Goffin’s condition in terms of his endurance and his knee.

Photo: AFP – Glyn Kirk

In my preview, I talked about the match-up problems that Goffin would have against Federer, which were directly the causes of his 0-6 record against the Swiss until today. Here they are:

“Firstly, his second serve is weak enough to where Federer can either attack the net and pressure Goffin behind the return, or begin running him ragged from the start of the point. Secondly, handling Federer’s serves is a puzzle that he needs to solve to have any chance to get ahead, in case he stays toe-to-toe with him in the early portions of the match. Thirdly, his up-and-down movement will have to shine, because Roger can bounce the ball high or keep it low with his slice, and David is a player that has a strong preference on where to strike the ball, which is around his hip-to-chest level.”

These took place in the first set, more or less in the way described above.

Then came the beginning of the second set.

Each of the first two games deserves a close look.

0-15 up in the first game on David’s serve, Roger misses a makeable passing shot, frames another backhand, erasing his 0-15 and 15-30 leads. Goffin, to his credit, gets his first serves in when needed and holds. Yes, there was a bit of help from Federer, but Goffin also did his part.

The second game on Federer’s serve is when we see clear signs of shift in Goffin’s approach. He begins tackling Roger’s serves with aggressiveness, at the cost of missing a few returns, in order to solve the puzzle that I mentioned as my second point in the preview above. Not much he could do on a wide serve by Federer on the first point. On the second point however, Federer hits a first serve to his comfort zone, and Goffin nails the reflex return deep to the corner – ok, a bit of a mishit may have helped, I am not sure. Federer, caught a bit by surprise, misses the the next shot, a forehand.

At 15-15 on Federer’s second serve, Goffin takes a big risk again. He steps inside the court and sends the return deep to the middle. It lands a bit out, but it’s the right play. This is what I meant by “at the cost of missing” above. It’s a typical case of doing the right thing, missing the execution.

At 30-15, same thing again! Goffin nails the return from inside the baseline, this time on Roger’s first serve. Federer is caught backing up and misses the next shot, which is also a forehand. Now it’s 30-30.

Roger serves well in the next point and wins it at the net. Now, it’s 40-30, game point for Roger.

Roger serves a second serve, and guess what? David returns aggressively again, pushing Roger back to hit a backhand that lands short, on which David attacks to the open corner. Federer misses the next shot, a forehand, again!

Notice closely what is happening here.

Goffin makes an adjustment, noticeably going fully aggressive on returns, and not only does it begin working for him, but bye then he has already pushed Federer into making three forehand errors. The consequence? Anytime a player misses three times from the same wing in a game, you better believe that a certain level of doubt begins to settle in his mind about that particular shot. Need I remind those who watched the match how Federer’s forehand went from this point forward? Well, its downfall began right here, in the second game.

(Those who do need the reminder should just watch the 1-0 game in the third, in which Roger goes up 0-30 on David’s service game with a legitimate chance to get a head start in the final set.)

At another game point for the Swiss later in the same game, an extended rally ends with, Roger missing his forehand again in the net. That error may go down as unforced error in the stats, but it is a direct result of the doubt beginning to burgeon in Federer’s mind from the three previous misses caused by Goffin’s aggressive returns. Back to deuce, still 1-0 Goffin, in the second set.

Fast forward to the third deuce. Goffin hits a direct winner on the return and now he has a break point against the man who has only lost his serve twice in the tournament. What happens in that break point? A short rally takes place in which Roger gets a short ball on his forehand, and hits a badly placed, mid-pace approach to David’s forehand who passes him cross-court. Is it a mediocre approach shot by Roger? Yes. Was it just a brain freeze? No. Did the previous four forehands missed in the game, the first three caused by David’s shift in tactics, play a role in his apprehensiveness to nail that approach shot? You bet. I believe the fear of missing that forehand contributed to the fact that Roger ended up hitting the approach shot safer than he would have otherwise done.

Goffin gets the break, goes up 2-0. The improbable turnaround has now taken off the ground, about to turn into an extended, high-altitude flight for two sets.

It does just that, with more adjustments from Goffin. He is determined to play inside the court and begins to move forward beautifully to hit the ball at his favorite height – see my third point above in the preview quote – on evry short ball hit by Roger. A great example of that is the very first point of the next game. It ends with Goffin’s swing-volley winner, set up by three aggressive shots in a row from inside the court.

The pattern has now changed. Federer is defending, Goffin attacking. For that to work, Goffin not only needs to return aggressively, but also get a lot of first serves in and “go big” on the second shot. He will do just that for the remainder of the match, and by the time he holds to confirm the break, the improbable turnaround has reached the necessary altitude and cruising.

Speaking of the second shot following the serve: see the 1-2 game in the final set. David has played, up to that point, his worst service game since the beginning of the second set. He should feel the heat, right? Nope. He stays as cool as cucumber. He presses on. He gets the first serve in, attacks on the second shot, hits the a volley winner: deuce. Next point, he gets the first serve in, attacks on the second shot, hits the volley winner: ad-in. Maybe I should have copied and pasted. Finally, a return error by Roger, and it’s 3-1. Break confirmed.

By now, Goffin is feeling it, Federer is not, probably a bit in shock himself. So were most tennis fans, I would think. Goffin rolls on his service games continuing the same pattern, all the way to the end. He continues to hit hard on returns whenever he can, but by now, holding serve has become a priority. For that to continue, getting first serves in and staying aggressive on second shots are the two components he needs. They do indeed work, his winning formula is complete. One break each set suffices.

Could Federer have made adjustments once down a break in the third? Of course, he was in a losing pattern. For example, he attempted to hit his backhand return that he has been slicing for the most part (not for the wrong reasons, it has worked in the past and in the first set) and missed it into the net to lose the game. That is what losing confidence does, and makes you less likely to try it again.

His confidence was also long gone in his two biggest weapons. As noted above, his forehand was spotty by then. Under the heat brought on by David’s returns, his first serves were no longer clicking either. While he served beautifully at 68% first serves in the first set, in the second and third set those numbers dwindled down to 57% and 59% respectively.

Conclusion: let’s give credit where credit is due. Goffin deserved to win the match. He was the better player for two sets, and the fact that Federer’s level dropped after the early break in the second set was secondary, and consequential, to what Goffin did to reverse the tide.

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Looking Ahead to Federer vs Goffin

The Belgian facing a giant hill to climb

For the preview of the other semifinal between Grigor Dimitrov and Jack Sock, click here

David Goffin played two lop-sided matches in his last two group matches. He lost the first, won the second. One certainty is that after a grueling three-setter against Rafael Nadal in his first match, he could not have asked for a more economical duo of matches even if he ended up on the losing end in one of them.

For him to have any chance against Roger Federer, he needs to have his footwork geared up, and even in today’s seemingly routine win over Thiem, he did not appear to be at 100% in his movement. By tomorrow, hopefully for him, it will improve. It better! Or else, he is packing up his bags.

The question is, would packing up his bagsy necessarily be a bad thing for him? Consider that he is one week away from playing his first match, a five-setter need I remind, at the Davis Cup finals in Lille, France. The Belgian tennis fans might not think it would be. But what does Goffin think? I tend to believe that top professionals in our sport would give 100% in an event like the ATP World Tour Finals, regardless of what awaits the week after.

Photo: Getty – Julian Finney

I do, however, believe that if Federer gets a head start and wins the first set, the subconscious may create a few dents in the professionalism of David, in the sense that the will to fight and to climb back into the match may not be as intense, since something even more intense is approaching fast – and yes, Davis Cup is a more intense experience for a player than any other event.

The bad news for Goffin is that getting a head start is a trademark of Federer. He has won Basel, and remained undefeated so far in London, without playing at his top level. You can, on the other hand, see his desire to win, his will to achieve perfection.

Everyone knows that this tournament means a lot to him. On numerous occasions, he has explicitly stated that winning the ATP World Tour Finals is a priority for him, ranking right behind the Majors. His drive will insure that, even if he does not perform at his best, his mind will stay sharp. He will put forth what is necessary to turn the match in his favor. “Efficiency” will be the key term for him, as it was in his win over Zverev on Tuesday. His top-level form may not even be necessary.

Furthermore, there are match-up problems here for David, above and beyond the psychological weight of having an 0-6 record against the Swiss.

Firstly, his second serve is weak enough to where Federer can either attack the net and pressure Goffin behind the return, or begin running him ragged from the start of the point. Secondly, handling Federer’s serves is a puzzle that he needs to solve to have any chance to get ahead, in case he stays toe-to-toe with him in the early portions of the match. Thirdly, his up-and-down movement will have to shine, because Roger can bounce the ball high or keep it low with his slice, and David is a player that has a strong preference on where to strike the ball, which is around his hip-to-chest level.

Photo: Getty – Julian Finney

The longer the rallies, the better for Goffin. At his sharpest, Goffin moves side-to-side as quickly as any other player on the tour, and extended rallies are likely to favor him, if not, at least increase the chances of Federer committing errors. Again, we come back to Goffin’s endurance. Can he play the scrambling style of game throughout the match, putting in long miles on his legs, and not run empty on fuel? I do not believe so.

If Federer’s first serve is on, considering all the above factors, look for a routine straight-set affair. Otherwise, Goffin must stay on serve early in the match, just to keep it close. Let that happen first, then have Goffin manage to steal the first set, “and then we’ll talk” (as Hank says to Walter in an episode of Breaking Bad).

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Looking Ahead to Dimitrov vs. Sock

From Sascha to Grigor, the road gets bumpier for Jack

For the preview of the other semifinal between Roger Federer and David Goffin, click here

Well, this semifinal between Grigor Dimitrov and Jack Sock should be a first-rate encounter. You cannot find two players, this late in the season, who seem to be peaking in form to the degree that these two are, and they both deserve to be in the semifinals.

Sock will have to deal with a different (and a more complicated) set of problems when he encounters Dimitrov on Saturday than he did in his three-set win over Alexander Zverev on Thursday.

For starters, Sock will not be handed numerous free points on double faults at crucial turning points of the match. This is not to say Dimitrov is not prone to committing double faults, but he will certainly be less generous than Zverev, and unlike Sascha, he will have enough sense to hit a safer first serve and get it in play on a crucial point after having double faulted in the few preceding ones.

Photo: Getty – Alex Pantling

Secondly, the young German played with predictable patterns throughout the match on Thursday, hardly changing the spin and the pace of the ball. That allowed Sock to anticipate his shots, get to the ball in time, and even run around the backhand to nail his forehand. See the 4-2 30-30 point in the final set, for one example out of many. Jack lost that point on an unforced error, but if you observe Jack’s movement during the rally, you will see how he knew ahead of time, on every shot, where Zverev was going to direct the ball. You will see him moving to the anticipated spot before even Sascha struck the ball.

That is because Sascha’s game, after two sets and a half, had become so predictable that when he actually hit a rare backhand down-the-line that was neither powerful (by his standard) nor to the corner, it turned into a winner because Jack was moving to his ad corner expecting the cross-court backhand from Zverev. That was a rare – a very rare – deviation from the norm for Zverev.

That level of predictability will be absent with Dimitrov on the other side of the net. The Bulgarian is a high-IQ player and knows better than to give the same look more than once or twice to a player whose streaky game depends on repetition and rhythm. When the Sock machine clicks on all cylinders, the American is hard to stop. His forehand, his serve, and his volleys can be deadly (see the fine touch volleys he hit on Thursday). Grigor will do everything possible to keep Sock out of his comfort zone, and that starts with staying away from predictable patterns that allows the American to get his feet set.

In addition, Grigor mixes up the ball a lot more than Sascha, and unlike the German, he does not have a visible weakness in his game such as second serves or low forehands on the opponent’s slice shots.

Sock may need to adjust his tactical formula more than once on Saturday, not because his initial one may not work, but because Dimitrov possesses enough ingredients in his game to modify his and counter Sock’s tactics, enough to push the American to adjust.

Photo: Getty – Clive Brunskill

You may have guessed it by now. Yes, I favor Dimitrov in this match, even though some naysayers will throw the “but Sock beat him the last three times he played” or “he is 3-1 against him” lines at me.

And they may be right.

For one thing, Grigor has had matches in the past where he came out unexpectedly flat and disappointed everyone including himself – although I can’t remember off the top of my head an abrupt loss by Dimitrov in recent times due to dismal play, while he was having a good run. Does the loss to Rublev at the US Open count? For another, I am terrible with score predictions. I do, however, feel confident in predicting that the outcome will be determined by how Sock handles the above challenges posed to him by Dimitrov.

Make no mistake: Sock can generate power and he is on a roll. His forehand is arguably this week’s biggest weapon in the tournament. I have no doubt that he feels pumped up after the last two weeks, and that he genuinely believes in his chances against anyone.

He has indeed been riding smoothly and at high speed on a wide-open highway.

Yet, I believe that ride will get very bumpy on Saturday. The terrain is about to change. He will deal with some narrow back roads with holes and low visibility, and after having ridden for so long, his tank may go empty with no gas stations around.

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