Category: Majors

Australian Open: Quarterfinal Previews – Upper Halves

The second week of another Major has arrived. While the women’s draw at the Australian Open has provided plenty of “unexpected” thrills, the men’s side went pretty much according to plans (see my preview in the last post), with the exception of Nadal’s exit in the first round at the hands of Fernando Verdasco and his “spatial tennis” in the final set of their match.

Now, I take a look at the upper halves of each draw. If I have time, I will do the same tomorrow for the lower halves. I will even stick my neck out there and give my say on what I believe will take place. It is not something that I usually do, because I am known for being a terrible prognosticator, therefore I would not desire anyone to place a bet based on my opinions (yes gamblers, I am staring at you). Nevertheless, in the name of having fun, let me know in the comments section if you have different ideas. Let’s get to it.

WOMEN

Serena Williams vs. Maria Sharapova

To ask the outcome of the match is like asking “what will your mother say if you spill the juice on the carpet or on her dress?” or “will Wall Street behave responsibly this year?” or “are Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders good friends?” You know the answer to those. You can play the dialog in your head numerous times and the outcome will not change one bit. The same applies to this match. It has literally been a dozen years and 17 matches since Maria last defeated Serena. It was when Barack Obama just became a senator, and this member of the media was revealing to New Yorkers that the internet “has finally come of age.” Is there any reason to believe that a different scenario may take place? No! Sharapova simply does not possess the weaponry in her game to out-hit or out-rally Williams. The only category in which Sharapova has consistently led Williams is the earned income category. Within the confines of a tennis court, Serena rules, it’s that simple. Any other scenario may perhaps take place in the parallel universe of this summer’s upcoming Star Trek movie.

Keys for Williams: Change nothing from the previous encounters because (1) she moves better than Sharapova during rallies, (2) she serves better than Sharapova, (3) she gets more pumped up for the opportunity to give a shellacking to Sharapova than to other opponents.

Keys for Sharapova: (1) Hope that Serena somehow loses her head, (2) as a result, the crowd rallies behind Maria because of it and because she is an overwhelming underdog, (3) and as a further result, Serena also loses her cool, suffers the tennis collapse of the decade.

I say —> One set surprisingly close as in 6-3 or 6-4, the other an easy stroll for Serena.

Agnieszka Radwanska vs. Carla Suarez-Navarro

This would be an intriguing match, except that Suarez-Navarro (I will refer to as CSN from here forward) is not one-hundred percent physically and has not played her best tennis in the previous rounds. She has benefited from a convenient draw so far, having faced only one top-100 opponent. In contrast, Radwanska has been tested by higher-quality opponents for one thing, and has come to the tournament with confidence for another, having won the year-ending WTA Finals three months ago. Having advanced to the quarterfinals in five of the last six years in Melbourne also makes her a persona grata at this stage of the tournament.

If CSN is healthy and ready to go, she has the game that can cause trouble to Radwanska who usually likes to park a meter or two behind the baseline and drive opponents crazy with her retrieving skills. She is similar to Simon on the men’s side in that sense, except that she possesses more variety, and thus, can “junk” her opponent out when needed. So, CSN will need to often accelerate her forehand to push Radwanska back, and use her backhand slice to bring her forward. In other words, she needs to get Radwanska to move back-and-forth on the court, rather than side-to-side. She can do that with her three preferred shots from the baseline; the aggressive forehand drive when she is in control of the point, the set-up low slice on the backhand, and the high and heavy topspin backhand. All three of those shots put a different spin and pace on the ball and she will need to frequently rotate between them. Assuming that this pattern eventually generates a short ball from her opponent, she must not pass up the chance to take the ball on the rise and approach the net. She needs to send a message to Aga that she will not ease up on future short balls, even if she ends up losing that particular point.

Keys for Radwanska: (1) Observe, test, and evaluate CSN’s physical condition early in the match by making her move in all directions through the use of her craftiness with drops shots and drive accelerations behind CSN (2) If CSN is not at 100%, keep the ball deep, allowing her to self-destruct, (3) If she is at 100%, engage her in repetitive patterns, such as cross-court backhands, and force her to take risks to get out of them, (4) Get the first serve in! Take the pace off it if needed, but do not rely on second serves to start the points.

Keys for CSN: (1) Create, attack, and harass Aga with aggressive returns on her second serves, (2) Vary often your three strong shots – see above, (3) Switch between kick serves and hard, flat serves on the advantage side, and on the deuce side, between slice serves to the outside and hard serves into the body. Execute the 1-2 punch if Aga’s returns, as a result, land short.

I say —> as noted above, there are some unknowns. But either way, Aga is craftier and better prepared mentally for a quarterfinal-round challenge. She should win in two fairly contested sets, but not really face much danger. If CSN comes out healthy and executes all of the above, it may not guarantee her the win, but it would guarantee an immensely entertaining match to the spectators.

Yuru1

MEN

Novak Djokovic vs. Kei Nishikori

Dear Novak fans, do not fret because your man made 100 unforced errors against Gilles Simon and looked less-than-stellar in his ground-stroke production. Simon, one of the biggest overachievers on the ATP Tour, puts many opponents off balance and Djokovic was no exception in that regard. It will be a different Novak against Nishikori, simply because the Japanese player will feed him a steady stream of high pace balls with which your man can display his superior counter-punching skills.

Yes, there is that loss to Nishikori back in the 2014 U.S. Open, but that seems ages ago. Djokovic is today a level above the player he was back then. Let me try to put in one sentence the summary of what we may see in this match. I see many rallies during which Kei produces one great forehand after another, runs Novak left and right, forces him to defend, only to see the roles reversed with one spectacular counter-punch shot by Novak, followed by the point ending a shot or two later with either Novak hitting a winner, or Kei going for the overkill on the run and committing an error.

That is not to say, Nishikori cannot adjust. He can drop shot, stick in a sharp cross-court or two behind Novak to throw him off balance. If he can force the Serb into a few mistakes early in the match, he may be able to build up enough steam to get ahead. I expect him to come out aggressive and go for big first serves. Nishikori has something to prove since that run to the final in New York. He has not yet backed it up. This time last year, many predicted that he would perhaps win a Major, but those same people have now lowered their expectations. Kei could not find a better opportunity than this to show again that he belongs to the top. I think he will be tuned in, and will want to believe (yes, X-Files is on my mind!).

Keys for Djokovic: (1) Counter-punch, repeat and recycle, (2) continue to win key points with first and second serves, (3) take risks on Nishikori’s second serves to take charge early in the point, (4) if the drop shot is off, take it off the menu, period!

Keys for Nishikori: (1) Be aggressive on the forehand from the beginning, (2) do not overkill from far behind the baseline, wait for the next shot, (3) play with a high first-serve percentage, (4) when pushed to the side, use sharp angles.

I say —> Djokovic wins in three sets, or loses the first and wins the next three.

Roger Federer vs. Tomas Berdych

Federer looked tremendous in his last match against David Goffin, but occasionally average in his previous matches. I always believed that Roger, unlike his main rivals, does better in Majors when he starts putting out his best in the earlier rounds. So the positive trend is a good sign, although it would have been preferable if he clicked on all cylinders from the beginning, like he did in the last two Majors. So, there is a bit of doubt in my mind, if he will again perform at the highest level against Berdych. One area in which Roger’s fans can take comfort is his “unlike-a-human-being-in-his-mid-thirties” footwork. He is moving like a cheetah on the court, and it clearly shows when he has to retrieve balls on defense. That will probably be the key to his success against the Czech who enjoys pounding his ground strokes and overpowering his opponent.

Berdych has had some success against Federer in the past, and even beaten him even in Majors (2010 Wimbledon, 2012 U.S Open). In every match that he won against the Swiss (total of 6 times) he seemed to stay inside the baseline and unleash one heavy ground stroke after another, while Federer committed mistakes when the rallies went beyond the ten-shot limit. When Berdych catches fire, he is a sight to behold and can make his opponent look primitive. That being said, his rhythm depends a lot on what Federer feeds him. So, let’s get to the keys of the match.

Keys for Federer: (1) Well-placed serves followed by either a volley, or a second and third shot that keep Berdych running and scrambling on the stretch, (2) tempt Berdych into coming to the net with low slices, forcing him to use topspin from below the net as an approach shot – not Berdych’s forte, (3) adjust the return position, use the SABR if needed, in short, do whatever it takes not to give Berdych a convenient ball to the middle of the court on the return.

Keys for Berdych: (1) A ton of powerful first serves, placement not that important, simply force Roger to block the return in order to take charge in the rally, (2) do not be afraid to come to the net, send a message to Federer that it’s not enough just to get the ball back with floating slices, (3) lull Roger into trading high-octane shots back and forth, like he did at Wimbledon 2010, or like Del Potro did in the 2009 US Open final, (4) hope that Roger’s footwork happens to be off for few hours on that day.

I say —> as previously noted, Federer’s footwork along with his ability to defend makes the difference, but not by much. This will be a tough one for the Swiss. Berdych is also more likely to get tight at critical junctures in the match. Federer wins in five sets, running away in the fifth after four contested sets.

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2016 Australian Open Men’s Draw: More of the Same?

Although all the top players participated in the so-called warm-up tournaments to the first Major of the year, tennis fans came to the realization that they will have to wait for this Monday to satisfy their craving of some high-quality, exciting encounters. However, the draw that came out Friday did not do any favors to anyone looking for a thrilling narrative to carry the two weeks, starting Monday. By “thrilling narrative,” I mean an eye-opening one that will end up being one of the main stories of 2016. Sorry Novak Djokovic fans, but your man lifting the winner’s trophy would not qualify as one. Nor would seeing the Big Four members (and/or Stan Wawrinka) play each other for the umpteenth time again in the semis. Yet, one look at the draw and that seems to be the most probable outcome.

Sure, there is some potential for first-week match-ups that feature two players who would probably be more than happy to make it the second week. I will even entertain the idea that Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer, or both, may get knocked out before the semis (only to have their conquerors melt away in the next round). But I neither see an emerging name reach the finals à-la-Kei in New York, nor envision an unlikely winner lifting the trophy like Wawrinka did two years ago, or Marin Cilic did in New York later that same year.

That being said, ticket holders should get their money’s worth. The possibility that this Australian Open may not go down as a trend-setting tournament does not mean that matches will be boring or of low quality. Without further ado, here is how I see the draw fill out section by section. In order to increase the suspense, I will not reveal the player favored to win the tournament. Read and see if you can figure it out (hint: pay attention to titles).

Yuru

TOP HALF OF THE DRAW

Djokovic’s “early” victims
Prior to eventually running into Djokovic in the third round, Andreas Seppi and Teymuraz Gabashvili will square off with the winner likely to battle Denis Kudla next. Although Gabashvili is down 1-3 in the head-to-head count against Seppi, he has a great chance to advance. He is enjoying his highest ranking of his 14-year career and Seppi, who is going through a dangerous slump, could see his ranking plummer in the first half of the season if he does not recover soon. Gabashvili is the only one from that top section who could challenge Novak in the third round, provided he can live up to his nickname “Tsunami” for three sets (which is almost like saying “provided that Ivo Karlovic finishes a match with less than 5 aces”). Otherwise, look for Djokovic to get to the 4th round being more challenged in practice sets than in the actual matches.

Djokovic’s “midway” victims
Speaking of “Dr. Ivo,” he finds himself as a possible opponent of Djokovic if he makes it to the fourth round. Stands in his way one of the biggest overachievers in today’s tennis by the name of Gilles Simon who, unfortunately for the French, matches up terribly with the big-serving Croate. Simon will still make Karlovic earn the victory if they both make it that far. Anyone knows by now that even when Simon is losing to you, he will make you suffer before doing so. I don’t see any other name from that section (sorry Vasek Pospisil, not in Australia) reaching the fourth round to be victimized by Djokovic.

In the quarters, Djokovic could face a number of players. The two highest seeds in that section are Kei Nishikori (7) and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (9). I do not like the fact that I am writing this while the three qualifying spots in this section still display the word “Qualifier” instead of names. I am one of those who believe that careers are made in the Majors, and they are made when a player comes through qualifying and unexpectedly creates a sensation (or with an “s”) in the first week of a Major, and then, backs it up in the following months, before finally establishing himself as persona grata in the upper echelons of the ATP Tour.

Regardless of who the qualifiers are, Tsonga has a rocky road to the quarters. Even before a possible match against Nishikori or XYZ player in the 4th round, he will have to knock out Marcos Baghdatis, the in-form Ilya Marchenko, and his countryman Benoit Paire. In any case, unless Nishikori or Tsonga somehow catch fire, Djokovic could have an easier win in the quarters than in his previous round. I consider Kei’s chances of catching fire low, but still higher than that of Jo-W.

Djokovic’s “later” victims
Novak’s most serious opponent in 2015, the one that he faced 7 times in the finals, could line up on the other side of the net to challenge him, this time before the finals. His name is Federer, and as incredible as it sounds with the kind of season that Djokovic had, he managed to beat the world number one three times, all on hard courts. The reality: Federer has not beaten Djokovic in a Major since the 2012 Wimbledon. The irony: Federer has not lost to Djokovic (4-0) in their matches before the finals since 2013.

Federer’s quarter also happens to be loaded with loose cannons. While I don’t see his first-round opponent Nikoloz Basilashvili, who had his best year by a long mile in 2015, shock a top player any time soon, Federer’s potential opponents in the next rounds could cause him some headaches. Alexandr Dolgopolov, his likely opponent in the second round, and Grigor Dimitrov in the third round, are both respectable players who have proven their ability to beat top players on a given day. In the fourth round, Federer’s “on-paper” opponent is David Goffin, but the bigger dangers for Federer are Goffin’s first-round opponent Sergiy Stakhovsky and the Belgian Dominic Thiem. I have argued for two years now that Thiem is destined for greatness and I am not wavering from my position on him. He is one of the faces of the next generation, and I expect him to break through to the top 10 in 2016. That path could begin in Melbourne. Having said that, the reality remains that for anyone to reach the quarterfinals from that section, they would need some help from Roger who, dare I say, played well only sporadically in Brisbane.

Federer could eventually face an experienced top-10 player like Tomas Berdych, or another young talent like Nick Kyrgios. I am not as sold on Kyrgios as everyone else is, and it is not because I don’t believe in his talent. It’s a cliché, but for some reason, it’s one that takes time to dawn on people: champions are made in practice. Kyrgios’ level of intensity and focus in practice is nowhere near that of the elite champions in our sport. Kyrgios may not make it that far anyway. Cilic, Tomas Berdych, and Roberto Bautista-Agut are nearby in the draw, as well as Borna Coric, another name that represents the future face of men’s tennis. The young Croat would need to beat Cilic, Bautista-Agut, Kyrgios or Berdych, in a row, just to get to the quarters. Can he do it? Yes! This section will be my favorite one to watch during the first week.

BOTTOM HALF OF THE DRAW
(i.e. Djokovic’s “final” victim)

Some are intrigued by the first-round clash between Fernando Verdasco and Nadal. We are quickly reminded of the five-set semifinal in the 2009 Australian Open, in which Verdasco pushed Rafa very hard. He also defeated Rafa as recent as nine months ago, in Miami. Despite that win, Verdasco is nowhere near his 2009 level, and Rafa is playing a lot better than in March 2015. I don’t see an upset happening, and with all due respect to Benjamin Becker and Dudi Sela, I expect them to challenge the world number 5 even less in the second round. Rafa’s road will get rockier starting with the third round. He should face the Frenchman Jérémy Chardy who is known to put out his best tennis in the Majors. Chardy can hang with Nadal from the baseline, and even overpower him, like Fabio Fognini did at the US Open. However, whether Chardy himself believes that he can do that or not, is a rather large question mark.

Nadal would then have to get past either Kevin Anderson or Gaël Monfils. I must again point out that, Anderson and Monfils have three qualifiers yet to be named in their little eight-man section. Despite his 0-3 record against Nadal, Anderson is the only name with a legitimate chance to beat the Spaniard, simply because he has improved in 2015 and added to his experience of facing the elite players in the Majors. He also has a big serve which has been a trade mark of most of the players who have upset Nadal in the Majors. It does not help either that Rafa has been unable to erased the question marks surrounding his game. But this is different. Two weeks ago in Doha, he played some of his best tennis in a long time and the fact that he got floored by Djokovic in the finals should not change that. If anyone can overcome a steep challenge, Rafa is that man. This Australian Open represents a golden chance for the 14-Major winner to reestablish himself as the top player, along with Djokovic, Murray, Federer, and Wawrinka.

In the quarters, Nadal will no doubt face a tough opponent. There are again four qualifiers in this section. Unless one of them pulls a stunner or two, and/or Viktor Troicki’s form soars even higher than it did this week in Sydney, I don’t see who can stop Raonic and Wawrinka (sorry Jack Sock fans, not yet) from battling each other to earn the right to face Rafa.

I have long maintained (since 2010 exactly) that Raonic would be one of our sport’s top players and I believe he is on the right track. Despite injuries hampering his progress over the last three years, he has steadily improved. He arrives to Melbourne healthy and confident. He has a legitimate chance to go far, even if it means going through Wawrinka and Nadal just to reach the semifinals. The success of Nadal, Wawrinka, or Raonic, when one of them reaches the “final four” stage, will largely depend on how much they have labored in the previous rounds. I dare anyone to predict this early how they will do in the semis where they would likely face Murray.

So what of Murray’s quarter of the draw? Big-serving Sam Groth could frustrate him – it does not take much to do that – in the second round, but can he do it for three sets? Fognini and Tomic, the two major head-cases of our sport, could play against each other in the third round, which may possibly make that encounter the highest-rated third-round match in the history of Majors. But can either one challenge Andy? The section with John Isner and David Ferrer is wide open and should provide someone with a golden opportunity to reach the quarterfinal. But, can that quarterfinalist, whomever it may be, surprise Murray? I believe the answer to all the questions in this paragraph is a “No.” Meanwhile, squeezed in-there-somewhere in this section is Brian Baker who has managed more comebacks than Aaron Krickstein has come back from two sets down in his days.

I see some sections of the draw that fascinate me for the first few days. I see others that should be exciting when we get to the third and fourth rounds. Then, from the quarterfinals on, I expect great tennis. What I do NOT expect, is to find names in the semifinals that are different than the ones we have seen in the last several Majors.

The show begins in 48 hours!

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Djokovic vs Federer: US Open Showdown

In Cincinnati, in his semifinal match against Andy Murray and in the final against Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer put forth two magical performances in as many days, dazzling the spectators at the Western & Southern Open. Apart from his tremendous agility at the age of 34, he also showcased his latest contribution to the game of tennis, a “half-volley-return-approach-shot” (later named SABR), using it in every one of his matches in Cincinnati against some of the best servers and players in the world…

With success…!

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Following his 7th Cincinnati title, and his 87th title overall praised the great champion, the tennis world praised Federer – deservedly – who provided much-needed relief to his fans around the world, still recovering from the Wimbledon loss to Djokovic in the final, and wondering if their man would still be in top form after weeks of no competition.

Now the two men will face each other for the U.S. Open title in the biggest tennis stadium in the world, in less than 48 hours – weather permitting, yes, that needs to be mentioned.

Ex-player-and-coach Darren Cahill, usually the cooler-headed member of the ESPN Tennis crew on TV, and the one who often brings order to the plethora of somewhat chaotic and emotional plethora of analysis by the other experts on that team, astutely said that he cannot really pick a winner in this match. Federer has looked formidable this summer, and in New York so far. Some pick him to hold his 18th Major trophy once it is all said and done. Others believe that Djokovic will find that extra gear on Sunday and once again topple the Swiss in the final match of a Major.

I happen to be in that small group of people, like Cahill, who find it difficult to tilt the scale in one player’s favor. Seeing how well Federer is playing, and how Djokovic did not consistently perform at a high level in his previous rounds, I tended to lean toward Roger until the semifinals. However, after seeing Djokovic’s ground strokes on fire against Marin Cilic, I had to remind myself that the Serb can peak at the right time, and has done it numerous times before. As Novak graciously pointed it out in the on-court interview after the match, there is no denying that Cilic was hampered by injury. Nevertheless, that should not negate how well the world number one was stroking the ball. Djokovic continuously absorbed Cilic’s serves, placed the returns deep in the court and pushed the Croat around from the very first shot of the rally, and then, repeatedly found dimes to hit on the court at will.

I prefer to stay away from overrated clichés such as reminding everyone that Federer looked invincible against Murray in the semifinals at Wimbledon but that Djokovic raised his level to still take him out in the finals, thus hinting that Djokovic should win again… OR, that Cincinnati shows that Federer had overcome the 4-set loss at Wimbledon, thus claiming that he is poised to beat Djokovic again on Sunday. These types of conclusions do have some merit, and yes, a win in Cincinnati without losing serve once (and only once in the US Open, against Philipp Kohlschreiber, if I am not mistaken) must have added a level or two to Roger’s already sky-high confidence. We can also say that defeating a solid Federer in the Wimbledon final, and doing it convincingly in the last two sets of the match, can only increase Djokovic’s belief in his late dominance over the Swiss in the Majors (6-2 since 2010). Or maybe, the fact that Djokovic ran almost 3 more miles than Federer did so far in the tournament, meaning that Roger will feel fresher than Novak (ok… not really… Djokovic will not lose the final because he is “tired,” considering how short his semifinal match lasted, let’s be honest). In any case, these stats remain great “clubhouse chat” topics, but do not influence the outcome of the next match as much as tennis fans are led to believe.

So, in an attempt to explain why it is such a complicated task to pick a favorite in this particular US Open final, I will dare to go a bit further and nitpick some details that are pertinent to how this 42nd meeting (Federer leads 21-20) between the world’s two best players may play out.

First, Federer’s SABR will no longer be an element of surprise for Djokovic. For example, in Cincinnati, neither Novak nor anyone else expected Federer to do it at 3-1 in the tiebreaker. That will not be the case in New York. Djokovic will now expect it and get ready for it. He may even turn it in his favor if he passes Federer in the first couple of attempts, making Roger think twice before he decides to approach the net again. Quite frankly, Federer does not base his game or his “Plan A” on the SABR, although I can understand the media and the fans talking it up because it is indeed a spectacular shot. He is not winning because the SABR works. It is in fact nothing more than a minor component of his overall attacking plan which includes (1) aggressive returns, often coming over the ball rather than slicing the backhand like he used to do à-la-pre-2014, (2) parking on or inside the baseline during rallies and suffocating his opponent by rushing him, (3) frequently serving and volleying, even on some second serves, (4) throwing everything but the kitchen sink at the opponent in terms of variety and effect on the ball, including drop shots, inside-out slices, and loopy topspin balls followed by hard and flat strokes, in the name of forcing the opponent to lose rhythm and hit that one short ball so that he can charge the net (in the past he used to do the same, but often, with only the goal of forcing an error from the opponent). Whether the SABR results in two or three points won or not is a lot less important than whether the above general areas work or not. One or more minor components of this master plan, such as the SABR or the drop shot, may not function well on a particular day, but if the rest clicks like a Swiss clock, Federer still has a great chance to lift the trophy on Arthur Ashe.

Expect a lot of this: Federer looking to create, Djokovic on his toes, rock solid.
Expect a lot of this: Federer looking to create, Djokovic on his toes, rock solid.

Second, many people seem to forget that, as much as Federer’s serve may have dominated opponents this summer, the last two times that these two champions faced each other, Djokovic has broken Federer’s serve a total of 4 times (more than everyone else combined since the French Open), while Federer has broken Djokovic’s only twice. And we are talking about two matches in which Federer played brilliant tennis for the most part. Consider also that the only break that Federer could muster in the 7-6 6-3 win in Cincinnati came when Djokovic committed three double faults in one game.

Third, the idea that Djokovic can defeat Federer simply by keeping the ball deep, staying solid from the baseline, and out-rallying him, while valid from 2013 until this summer, may now appear outdated. Federer has shown since the beginning of the 2015 season that he has no intention of settling for baseline rallies, although that plan alone worked well enough for him to win a good portion of his career wins and titles. That being said, let’s also admit that against Djokovic, as Federer himself probably knows, he can no longer win like that. This type of challenge is precisely why Federer and his team undertook certain adjustments to his game at the start of the season, beginning with his off-season practice sessions in Dubai in December of 2014 (the move to the bigger racket should also get a mention here, even if it took place much earlier than that). Just as modifications to one’s game takes time to integrate to the existing arsenal of shots, and reach the level desired, it took some time for Federer’s adjustments to become one with how he and his team envisioned his game to develop in 2015. But I believe most of us can now comfortably say that he is now at ease with the attacking style of tennis that we are seeing from him today.
But only now…!
Meaning that, on Sunday, we will most likely witness a Federer who feels more confident about every facet of his game than ever before. To put it bluntly, I expect Federer to attempt to impose his attacking style on Djokovic more efficiently than he may have done in their previous five encounters this year, including the latest one in Cincinnati. He will find a way (unlike in Rome, or in significant portions of Wimbledon) to keep the rallies short and rush to the net earlier than expected. That brings me back to my original point in the beginning of the paragraph: yes, the idea that solid baseline rallies largely favor Djokovic is valid on paper, and would work on the court just as it did in many of their previous matches. But it will be much harder, perhaps impossible, for Djokovic to put that idea into practice this particular weekend in September. Djokovic will need to come up with an extra answer this time.

Fourth, the New York crowd is unlike any other crowd in the world. They will once again be pro-Federer, in the same way that the Wimbledon crowd was, except that they will be louder, tipsier and more obnoxious than the spectators that fill the Centre Court on SW19. Djokovic expects that when facing Federer and Nadal. However, expecting it does not mean that it does not bother him. It will be essential for Djokovic to keep his cool, and not share an unnecessary number of “silent-stare-down” moments with his corner every time something does not go his way on the court.

Finally, there is one intangible when these two play that complicates the outlook: which will have the longer “down period” during the match? I define “down” period as the number of games where a player’s intensity level drops physically or mentally – and unintentionally of course – causing him to lose focus, and letting the other player grab the upper hand as a result. For example, Federer had a visible down period in the third set of this year’s Indian Wells final, effectively ending the match. Djokovic also had one that lasted for most of the third set that he lost 6-1 to Rafael Nadal (speaking of a player who rarely goes through a down period) in their memorable five-set semifinal match in 2013 at the French Open. Even a brief down period can turn a match around, such as the one by Federer against Djokovic in the Wimbledon final when he led 0-30 on Djokovic’s serve at the 1-1 game in the third set. Two points from breaking Novak and taking charge of the third set, with all the momentum on his side (remember how he won the second set tiebreaker?), Federer went on to commit several unforced errors unexpectedly, causing him to lose the next two games and going down a break. It is very hard to predict which player will have the longer down period, or how many, but I feel certain that we will see at least one or more.

So, have you picked a favorite yet? If you must, good luck! If you are like me and simply desire to see a high-quality tennis match, I reckon we will not be disappointed. The way both players have performed in 2015, and in this tournament, I expect nothing short a stellar match.

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Sitting Across MT-Desk: Greet Minnen (BEL)

Interview recorded at Wimbledon, on July 6th, 2015, following Minnen’s first-round 6-3 6-3 win vs. Maddison Inglis (AUS) in the Girls’ Singles draw.

Greet Minnen is a 17-year-old Belgian player. I watched her play only once before, late in 2014. I thought she had plenty of talent, good overall technique, and the necessary athleticism to be a great tennis player in the future. She had a solid serve, and her game seemed to be better tailored for faster courts. Having followed her mostly from news feeds since that time, I knew that she suffered an injury after the Australian Open (in which she reached the semifinals of the junior girls’ draw) that forced her to be off the court for several weeks. In any case, prior to coming to Wimbledon, my mind was made up about interviewing her.

Minnen 3

We did the interview approximately two hours after her win vs Inglis. Minnen has played Inglis before, but not on grass. After I introduced myself and asked her how to pronounce her name correctly (definitely not how you would read “greet” in English, closer to but not exactly like “Great”), I congratulated her and she said “thanks” and added that she felt great and in good shape throughout the match, and that she was happy. Shortly after, we began the interview.

Greet was very polite and spoke in a soft-mannered tone. It was truly a pleasure talking to her. She seemed extremely mature and intelligent about the game of tennis, and gave the impression of having a clear vision of her goals. She answered every question with enthusiasm and made an effort not to spare any details despite her limited language skills. When given the choice, she preferred doing the interview in English rather than French. I adjusted a few words and tenses in order to make it more understandable for the reader, but in general, I did my best to transcribe word-for-word, as much as possible, everything that was said.

Minnen 12

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MT-Desk:
About your match today… It looked from the outside like you were in control of the match from the first point to the last. Did it also feel that way to you inside the court?

Greet Minnen:
I also felt that I was a bit more in control than she was. I knew that when I played well, I could win easy points. But she kept hanging on much better than I expected actually. She served a few good serves, and it was difficult to break her in the second set. But once I did, I knew that I had to hold my serves to win out.

MT-Desk:
You put a lot of pressure on the returns and she double faulted a few times because of that.

Greet Minnen:
Yes.

MT-Desk:
You had a hamstring injury after the Australian Open. Do you feel that by now you have found your form?

Greet Minnen:
Yes, I think it’s coming back by now. It’s still not the best I ever played. In Australia, I was playing really well, unfortunately I had the injury. It happens. But now, I am getting back to the level that I want to be, I think.

MT-Desk:
Was that your first big injury or have you had one or two before?

Greet Minnen:
I had injuries before but not as big as this one. I was out for two months. I also had a shoulder injury before that lasted one month. But this was the biggest one.

MT-Desk:
What is your practice schedule during the off-season and where do you practice? Do you mostly practice with other players or under the supervision of a coach? Please give details, if you don’t mind, on your daily practice routine during the off-season.

Greet Minnen:
I practice in Antwerp at the Belgian Federation. I practice mostly with other players, but not from my age, because there are no players at my age. They are older or younger, it does not matter really. I just finished school so now it’s going to be different when I practice. But last year, I used to practice in the morning before going to school for 3-4 hours.
[Greet added later that she worked with coaches from the Belgian Tennis Federation, but not with one coach specifically]

MT-Desk:
You mean you practiced before school, early in the morning?

Greet Minnen:
Yes, around 8:00 or so. Then, I would go to school. Then, in the evening, I practiced again twice: tennis and physical. Then I had to do some homework, and went to sleep. In the mornings, it was mostly drills and a lot of ball hitting. In the afternoon, I would mostly play matches.

MT-Desk:
You seem to have a complete overall game. You hit slice, topspin, flat, you come to the net, hit drop shots. You have a good serve and overhead. Have you always had this type of game since you started playing tennis or did you develop some of these shots later?

Greet Minnen:
Well, my serve was actually there from the beginning already. It was my strongest point with my forehand. But my backhand was kind of my weak point in the beginning, but I think it’s getting better now. Also, my slice and drop shots were not there at all in the beginning. So I had to develop them of course.

MT-Desk:
So you developed your touch later?

Greet Minnen:
Yeah. I had some but I did not use it [and laughs].

Minnen 2

MT-Desk:
In terms of technique, what is your next immediate goal? Is there a specific shot that you would like to develop?

Greet Minnen:
I have to try to come more to the net. Especially on grass, it’s very important that you go to the net. I am always like, little bit holding back to go to the net because my volleys aren’t that amazing [smiles], but they are ok.

MT-Desk:
I think you have good technique, but I saw that you hit a couple of good forehands during the match and you stayed back, hesitated.

Greet Minnen:
[smiles] Yeah, I was like “I want to go but… no never mind” . Yeah, I have to come much more to the net. I think that’s very important for me now.

MT-Desk:
You have hard court season before the U.S. Open, you will continue to work towards that goal?

Greet Minnen:
[Nods firmly] Yes!

MT-Desk:
What about your goals in the next 12 months? You finished school, you will soon finish your junior career. Are you already thinking about post-December?

Greet Minnen:
Yeah, of course! When I finish Wimbledon, I will play a lot of tournaments in Belgium, [ITF] $10,000s. It’s very important that I get my ranking back that I lost. But I think, end of this year, I want to be like 600-700 WTA.

MT-Desk:
Is your family into tennis? Are you the first one in your family to play tennis? Can you talk about your family a bit?

Greet Minnen:
My dad used to play tennis when he was younger, but he mostly played soccer. My mom also played a little bit of tennis but not much. So, I think am the first one who really wants to go for it. My brother rides horses, so it’s totally different than me. He likes animals, I like tennis balls [smiles].

MT-Desk:
Do they come and watch you play all the time?

Greet Minnen:
My dad, mostly yes. My mom passed away, so, no. My brother, he doesn’t come actually, he is not interested really [laughs]. But my dad is really amazing when he comes to watch.

MT-Desk:
I have noticed that players from the younger generation don’t like to watch tennis on T.V. for a long time. Maybe a few games, but not a full match [Greet says “Yeah” and smiles]. Do you actually sit down and watch a full match from the beginning to the end?

Greet Minnen:
It depends… If I know the person, like a person from Belgium, then yes, I want to watch the whole match.
[I can’t tell if she is trying to give me a message, so I decide to go ahead and mention David Goffin’s ongoing match]

MT-Desk:
Oh! David is playing now…
[Greet laughs and says “Yes!”],
so I should let you go!
[laughs again, motions her hand as if to say “it’s ok” and continues talking]

Greet Minnen:
But also, when it’s like Federer, I also watch the match. But when it’s like not such an important match… or I also don’t like watching women’s tennis in general [and smiles], I don’t like how they play.

MT-Desk:
Van Uytvanck was watching your match. Does it feel good because she watched from beginning to the end?
[Alison van Uytvanck, 2015 Roland Garros quarterfinalist, is the highest ranked player from Belgium in the WTA at no. 49. She watched both of Greet’s matches from start to finish!]

Greet Minnen:
Yeah, of course. It’s amazing that she was there. I play with her sometimes at the Federation. It’s like little bit of an example for me on how I should play eventually. So, yes it was really great.

Van Uytvanck (left) watched Minnen's match in its entirety
Van Uytvanck (left) watched Minnen’s match in its entirety

MT-Desk:
Good luck and I hope you continue winning. Thank you for taking the time.

Greet Minnen:
I hope so too. No problem. Bye.
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Unfortunately, Greet lost to Vera Lapko the next day, in an extremely tight second-round match, 6-7 6-3 7-5. Lapko advanced to the semifinals before losing to the finalist Anna Blinkova. This seemed somewhat familiar. I interviewed Sofya Zhuk, a month earlier at the French Open after her first round win. She also lost the next day in a very tight match (was up a match point in the third). CiCi Bellis, who defeated her, also reached the semifinals. Then, Zhuk went on to win the Wimbledon Girls’ Singles title. Hopefully for Minnen, the same pattern will repeat itself at the next Major, the U.S. Open.

Greet after winning the match point, on her way to the net to shake opponent's hand
Greet Minnen, after winning the match point

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Wimbledon 2015 in Pictures – Part 3

Here is the final installment of the Wimbledon in Pictures series.
In case you missed the first two parts:
Click here for Part 1
Click here for Part 2

If you want to buy tickets at regular prices, here is what you are facing (remember this is in GBP, convert to your own currency if needed).
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Parking RatesAnd if you arrived in a car, be ready to pay these parking prices…
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Wimbledon grounds 1Here is the alley leading from Centre Court to Court 1, with Court 14 on the right (you can only see the back of the stands) and Court 18 further to the left (you can see the spectators).
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Wimbledon Grounds 2Another picture from the grounds with Court 18 on the background.
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Courts 8-11More intimate and closer to the action: Courts 8 to 11.
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ScoreboardsScoreboards everywhere keep you updated on the matches and help you decide where you want to head next.
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Nastase 1While you walk around the grounds, you can possibly run into some famous people such the legendary Ilie Nastase who also has the rank of Major General in the Romanian army and he will dress accordingly too!
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Luthi familyOr the Swiss Davis Cup Captain, and Federer’s coach and confidant, Severin Luthi, enjoying a nice day at Wimbledon with his family.
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Mahut - Isner plaqueWhat an amazing match this was in 2010! Wimbledon makes sure it’s never forgotten.
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Ballboys go homeThe true heroes of the courts, the ball kids, heading home in the evening, cheered on by their supervisors.
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During the second week, main draw matches get scheduled for the most part on the show courts. The competition also begins for the Legends, Seniors, and Juniors.

Freya Christie 1Here is the girls’ doubles semifinalist, the British Freya Christie.
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And here is the girls’ winner, the 15-year-old Russian Sofya Zhuk (read my one-on-one interview with Zhuk at the French Open, as well as my tactical analysis of her match there, against CiCi Bellis in the second round)
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Mikael Ymer 7 and fansBoys’ finalist Mikael Ymer of Sweden already has fans asking him for pictures and autographs.
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Jaeger - Temesvari 4A page from the 1980s! Andrea Temesvari and Andrea Jaeger competing in the Ladies’ Invitational Doubles.
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Free Trucks at WimbledonJust for good measure (!), Centre Court had to be evacuated one evening due to a small fire.
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Then, we arrived in the final few days of Wimbledon…

Henman Hill 1 hour beforeHenman Hill filled up every day once the tournament reached it’s last few days. Here is a shot from one hour before the ladies semifinals started on Thursday.
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Kids ClinicThe Kids’ clinic ran in the mornings until the last days of Wimbledon.
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Muguruza 3Finalist Garbine Muguruza of Spain, practicing her returns (amazingly, in front of empty stands!) on the day before her final round encounter with Serena Williams.
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Serena Mouratoglu 3Serena practicing her serves with coach Patrick Mouratoglou on the morning of the final.
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Hingis Mirza doubles practice 2And here are Sania Mirza and Martina Hingis getting ready for their Women’s Doubles final. They lifted the winner’s trophy, Mirza making history as the first Indian woman to win a Major title, and Hingis winning her first title at Wimbledon since 1998 (women’s doubles, she won the singles’ title in 1997)
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Rojer Tecau 2Jean-Julien Rojer and Horia Tecau receiving much love from fans after they won Wimbledon Men’s Doubles title.
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Queue (2)And it is only appropriate to end this series with the one constant thing throughout the weeks: The Queue (this shot, on the last day of Wimbledon).
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This concludes Wimbledon 2015 coverage for MT Desk. Thanks to everyone who read the updates on Mertov’s tennis Desk and followed the ones on Twitter. My next on-site coverage will be from the Citi Open in Washington D.C.
Until next time…

Note: Follow Mertov’s Tennis Desk on Twitter

Wimbledon 2015 in Pictures – Part 2

Here are more pictures from the 2-week-long adventure called Wimbledon.
In case you missed it, click here for Part 1.

Wimbledon viewHere how calm and peaceful Wimbledon can be in the morning before the gates open.
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feYet, here is how hectic and crowded it can also get during the day
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Fans can go to Aorangi Park tennis courts, adjacent to regular match courts, and see world-class players practice. Some of the courts are visible to ticket holders, others are too far back. Couple of those courts are right next to where tennis fans can watch them up close from a platform (such as the one with Fognini and Bolelli below).

Aarongi Park courtsAorangi Park courts. Seppi and Federer are practicing in the middle court, Sabine Lisicki to the left.
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Fognini Bolelli practiceFognini and Bolelli were not exactly painting the portrait of an intense practice session..
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Once you begin to explore the grounds, you slowly realize what a beautiful place it is and how big a role it plays in the history of our beautiful sport. Here are some examples…

Ct 1 and Henman HillHere is a view of Court 14 below, with Court 1 on the right, and Henman Hill in the background.
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Court 1If you have a Court 1 ticket, you get treated to this beautiful view.
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Court 1 uncoveredWhen the rain comes, the courts get covered in about 2 min 30 seconds (I timed it three times, that was the average). That is from the time they line up to pull the covers back, to the time they secure the covers to the sides.
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Centre Court Plaque 1Then, there is of course, Centre Court, roughly 4 years older than Her Majesty the Queen Elizabeth II.
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But my advice to you, don’t get stuck in the big show courts and miss out on everything that you can see in and around the outside courts. In the show courts, the best players in the world showcase their talent. On the grounds, and around the outside courts, Wimbledon showcases history.

Fred Perry StatueFor example, the last British man to win Wimbledon prior to Andy Murray (in 1936) welcomes you if you enter through Gate 4. One of my favorite art pieces on the grounds.
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Wimbledon Lawn MuseumOnce inside, you can visit the Lawn Tennis Museum.
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Wimbledon ShopOr simply shop for Wimbledon souvenirs. If you are an American, I would urge you not to convert pounds to dollars in your head if you don’t want to ruin your shopping experience!
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AELTC Entrance 2However, there is one place you will not get to see: the Clubhouse of the All England Lawn Tennis & Croquet Club. Only members are allowed through that door, even during the tournament.
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Clouds in the skyThe skies often turned gray during the two weeks…
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Rain delay Ct 1… but rarely did we have rain delays, and if we did, there were short like this one during the match between Roger Federer and Gilles Simon.
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Court SweepThe groundskeepers and maintenance crews do the best they can do maintain the courts

But you can only delay the inevitable for s long. In the first week, courts slowly began to lose their “pure green” color. Below is a series of photos of the progressive wear and tear on the courts, throughout the two weeks.

CourtCourt stateCourt 5Court state 4Court State 12Court State 2Court last————

Hey, look at it half-glass full. Service lines are hanging in there just fine. Where have all the serve-and-volleyers gone (with a deep sigh)?Court - Service line 1————

In the meantime, competition continued all over the outside courts.

Jaziri 2You can see some players, such as Malek Jaziri here, put on some dance moves (!)
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Marsel vs Anderson 1On Court 2, Marsel Ilhan came close to going 2 sets up on Kevin Anderson (led a set and 6-3 in the second-set tiebreaker)
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Crowd at Mersel vs JanowiczOn smaller courts, you are next to the action, although it can get a bit crowded..
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Groth 5You can also walk up and ask your favorite player for an autograph, such as this Australian fan who asks one from Sam Groth after his first-round win.
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Bacsinszky fans 1Sometimes players such as Timea Bacsinszky can get overwhelmed by the amount of fans as she exits the court.
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Bacsinszky fans 2Random fictitious caption ==> Bacsinszky: “I am suffocating!!! Get. Me. Out. Of. Here. PLEASE..!” – The girl in pink on the right: “Oh God! Is she going to pass out?” – The little girl in the back: “Mommy mommy, what was wrong with her? She did not sign my ball!”
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Court 12 quotesThese inspirational quotes by some past and current champions fill the walls on the back of Court 12
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Click here for Part 3

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