Author: Mertov

US Open Men’s Draw: Open to Outsiders

The two Masters 1000 tournaments that take place Canada and Cincinnati often give a solid indication of what is likely to take place in the U.S. Open, which starts one week after the end of the Cincinnati tournament. For example, last year, Rafael Nadal went on to win both tournaments, in Montréal and Cincinnati, and kept rolling through the U.S. Open all the way to his 13th Slam title.

If that trend holds true, in other words, if these two tournaments signal what is to come in New York, one message is clear: the top 15 players in the ATP are either out of form or injured and it may just be the perfect opportunity for an outsider to reach for the elite status. Stanislas Wawrinka did in the Australian Open, but he had to go through two of the world’s best — Novak Djokovic and Nadal — in order to hold the Slam trophy.

Djokovic has had the most miserable two-week period of his career in a long time. He played well below his usual level of tennis, often looking like a novice on the court, missing silly balls and appearing afraid to hit the ball. He played four matches during which he never played better than mediocre tennis by his standards. He admitted that the two weeks did nothing for his confidence and that he is heading into the U.S. Open without enough match play in the hard courts.

Rafael Nadal has pulled out of the US Open due to his left-wrist injury. Roger Federer is no doubt the most consistent top player on the tour this summer. However, as good as his results have looked during these two weeks, his tennis has been up and down. Even as he won in Cincinnati, he only played one great match from beginning to end, his semifinal win against Milos Raonic. The rest of his matches featured patches of dry spells filled with strings of unforced errors.

Stan Wawrinka did not make the semifinals in either tournament. After his win against Cilic in the third round of the Cincinnati tournament, he responded to a media member’s question by saying, “I am glad I won, but I have to play much better to go further.” He did not, and he was eliminated by Julien Bennetteau in the quarterfinals. Tomas Berdych is in a virtual free-fall since Roland Garros and risks being left out of the top 10 by the end of the year unless he recuperates quickly. Andy Murray, meanwhile, still does not have a win against a top-10 player since Wimbledon 2012. Milos Raonic has been more consistent than other top-10 players, but still not playing at the level that got him to the semifinal round of Wimbledon. He is the number 6 player in the world, but he has yet to record a single win against the top five players ahead of him in 21 attempts.

Dimitrov - Cincy

Another newcomer to the scene and the other semifinalist in Wimbledon, Grigor Dimitrov (pictured above), made it to the semis in Toronto, but played dismal against Jerzy Janowicz in his early-round exit in Cincinnati. As for David Ferrer, although he did reach the final in Cincinnati, by his standards, he is having his most inconsistent year on the tour since, well… ages ago. If one considers that Kei Nishikori, Richard Gasquet, and Juan Martin del Potro have all pulled out of the U.S. Open, we can extend this list of out of form attribute to the players ranked in the top 15. Ernests Gulbis (13) and John Isner (14) are not exactly burning the barn, either.

Once the U.S. Open begins on Monday, it will naturally be hard to pick anyone outside the top 15 to win the tournament or even to get to the semifinals. Yet, if the players ranked in the 15-to-40 range take a close look at the field, they should be able to see that this US Open may be their best opportunity to dig far in a Slam and earn valuable points. The big names are clearly not playing well, and an outsider who wants to make a run to the last weekend of the tournament, may not have to go through bunch of them to get there. Unless any one or more of the top players happened to rediscover their form during this week in practice, the window of opportunity is there for one or more outsiders to have a career-building tournament.

Fans’ Choice on Friday Evening: ATP over WTA

One often hears the likes of Billie Jean King, and other proponents of equal pay, make the argument that the product that the WTA puts out is just as interesting as that of the ATP, or that fans are just as interested in seeing the women play as they are in seeing the men. The evidence however, as the below example will show, points yet again to the contrary. While the argument of equal pay has its merits and is beyond the scope of this article’s main point, it is time for those making the argument to use accurate statements when presenting their case, instead of throwing faulty assumptions and relying on platitudes. Once again, during Friday evening in the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati, there was visual proof that the ATP product clearly fills more seats than that of the WTA. The tournament had two elite matches scheduled at the same time. Roger Federer squared off against Andy Murray on Center Court at 7:00 PM at the same time as Maria Sharapova took on Simona Halep on the Grandstand Court.

The comparison is fair: Federer and Murray are the two faces of the “Big Four,” two of the most recognizable faces in men’s tennis. Sharapova and Halep are equally recognizable in women’s tennis, especially since their fantastic and recent French Open final. Federer is ranked number 3 and Murray is ranked number 9 in the ATP; Halep is ranked 2 and Sharapova is ranked number 6 in the WTA. Federer and Sharapova are two of the most famous athletes in sports, certainly the most marketable ones in men’s and women’s tennis – and that is a fact; Forbes lists the two celebrities as the highest paid tennis players thanks to endorsements.

The following two pictures were taken about 10 minutes apart. In order to make it fair, they were both taken at the same score line. Here is the Center Court (max. capacity 11,425) at the beginning of the second set after Federer won the first set 6-3:
Center

Now here is the Grandstand Court (max. capacity 5,000) at the beginning of the second set, after Halep won the first set 6-3:
Grandstand

Keep in mind that the Center Court has more than twice the capacity of the Grandstand (11,425 to 5,000). There is no doubt that tennis fans preferred to watch the men rather than the women in this case. This is not to say that women’s tennis does not generate interest. In fact, as soon as the Federer vs. Murray match was over, those fans on Center Court migrated quickly over to the Grandstand, packing the seats to watch Sharapova beat Halep in a thrilling three-set victory. Yet, when given similar choices, they prefer to watch men’s tennis over women’s tennis at the elite level.

Tactical Analysis: Importance of Scouting & Knowing the Opponent’s Game

The Case of Zarina Diyas (#52) vs. Irina-Carmelia Begu (#62) – WTA Cincinnati 2014, First Round – Diyas wins 7/6 7/6

On a rather windy morning, two players that have never met each before entered Court 10, one of the “outside” courts at the Western & Southern Open WTA Premier Event. Both Zarina Diyas of Kazakhstan and Irina Begu of Romania came through the qualifying draw. On the one hand, since this is their first meeting, I can understand (to a degree) that they may not know each other’s’ strengths or weaknesses down to the last detail. On the other hand, isn’t that why the players have coaches? Isn’t that why they talk to other players or coaches on the tour to get bits and pieces of information on the next opponent? I am not sure if this was the case for Diyas, but there is no doubt that Begu could have benefited from some quality scouting, especially in a match like this where the balance hangs on a very small number of points.

Diyas is a solid baseliner who likes to drive the ball on both sides rather flat, with some spin at times. Her shots can penetrate the court and derail an opponent because they do not bounce particularly high. She is a short girl and likes to contact the ball below the shoulder level, preferably low. Needless to say, her best results have come on fast surfaces, with a third-round breakthrough appearance at this year’s Australian’s Open and a fourth-round appearance at Wimbledon little over a month ago. She likes to direct the point with her forehand and driving through the ball, especially if she can make contact with the ball at about hip or knee level. Begu is also a baseliner who has more variety in her game, very characteristic of players with a European pedigree, having developed skills by practicing mostly on red clay. She can hit drop shots, heavy topspin, angle shots, and even mix in an occasional slice.

As the match began and I saw point after point, I was a bit surprised that Begu kept on holding rallies with Diyas where she was hitting the ball with the same pace, trying to be aggressive at times, and going for winners at others. This type of game played into Diyas’ hands as she gained momentum and began to strike the balls with perfect timing. My surprise turned to downright bewilderment by the end of the match, because Begu attempted to play a Sharapova-like game, in other words, hit the balls hard to the corners, and go for winners by out-hitting Diyas. She did not drop shot or use angles much, but more importantly, she did not try to make Diyas hit the kind of shot that makes her uncomfortable, which is any ball above her shoulder, especially on the forehand side! As you can see in this picture, Diyas hits an open-stance forehand which gathers force from the right foot rotation:
Diyas 8

Watch also in this clip how essential the right-foot push is to Diyas’ forehand at her comfort zone, as she hits the low forehand on the baseline to force her opponent into a mistake:

A high ball which forces Diyas to make contact above the shoulder may cause her balance to be slightly off, thus take away her control and power. Strangely, Begu forced Diyas to hit forehands above the shoulder level only three times the whole match! First one was at 5-5 in the first set, and it resulted in a short ball by Diyas which allowed Begu to hit a winner. The second was at 4-2 for Diyas in the tiebreaker of the first, and Begu’s high and loopy topspin forehand resulted in a direct error by Diyas! The third time and only other time Diyas had to hit a forehand above the shoulder level is in the clip below. You will see Diyas’ forehand return fall short because she had to hit it above the shoulder level, out of her comfort zone. Begu should have taken advantage of the short ball and gone for the kill but instead she gives Diyas a second chance, and Diyas ultimately wins the point on yet another forehand from her comfort zone around the hip level:

It’s a mystery to me why Begu never centered on hitting high balls to Diyas on both sides and set up the short ball to put the pressure on her opponent? She definitely has that shot in her repertoire and in fact, she used it occasionally against Kimiko Date-Krumm in the first round of qualifying. Yet, she did exactly the opposite against Diyas, mostly hitting the ball hard and going for winners. To exasperate things further, she played that style trying to break Diyas’ forehand down (it’s the only explanation that comes to mind since almost 80% of Begu’s shots went to Diyas’ deuce side as you can see in all of the clips in this article too). Without any surprise, Diyas felt right at home, hitting the type of forehands that she likes, at the pace that she likes, moving the ball around at will. Spectators saw plenty of points like the ones in the three clips below. See how Diyas continuously gets to hit precisely the type of ball that she likes, at the same sweet zone, over and over again even though she remains on defense in this first clip:

And now check out this rally where Diyas gets to play a mixture of offense and defense, always in control of the point because what you don’t see is Begu running from corner to corner on the other side of the net:

In this next rally, see Diyas as the aggressor, stepping inside the baseline, mounting the pressure, and eventually hitting a forehand winner:

As these clips show, the match was played on Diyas’ terms. Considering how versatile her game is, Begu would have done herself a favor by utilizing the full arsenal of shots that she has in her depot, especially the high topspin off-pace ball that she uses on and off on clay courts. Furthermore, a little scouting would have directed the Begu camp in the right path beforehand. Diyas played another Romanian player Monica Niculescu in the last round of qualifying. A close look at that encounter, or some advice from Niculescu’s camp would have pointed to Diyas’ strengths and weaknesses and helped Begu prepare better for the match. Despite the pattern of points in Diyas’ favor, the match’s outcome rested on a handful of points and it was decided in two tight tiebreakers. Thus, the right type of scouting and game-plan preparation could have made the difference between winning and losing. That game plan would not have included allowing Diyas to dictate points with below-the-shoulder level strokes, since she is a rather small girl who has no trouble bending her knees if necessary, as this picture shows:
Diyas 5

I spoke to Diyas after the match and asked her if she felt comfortable with the type of ball that she was receiving from her opponent. She responded “yes” and when I vaguely touched on the above, she remembered the point in the tiebreaker where she made the mistake on the high ball, and did not really have an answer as to why her opponent did not hit higher balls. She did point out that it was windy and that perhaps it was not easy to direct the ball in Begu’s defense, however her response clearly showed that she was very much aware of the fact that she was getting to play match on her terms.

Until next time…

Western & Southern Open – Day 1 Notes

In the morning, as I walked in the facility, Eugénie Bouchard was practicing on court 15 and Andy Murray was hitting with Alexander Zverev, the young German sensation of the post-Wimbledon clay-court season, on court 16. The two courts are located next to each other. There were as many spectators watching Bouchard as there were watching Murray. It’s one of those moments where a player’s stardom is confirmed. If as many tennis fans are interested in seeing Bouchard practice as Murray, Bouchard has indeed reached the “hot shot” status that her t-shirt displayed:
Bouchard

However that was nothing compared to Djokovic and Murray’s practice session yesterday on that same court, while the second-round qualifying matches were in action. There were clearly more people watching them practice than any other match that was taking place the grounds. Notice the fans on the top row of the Grandstand court, looking over to watch the two stars (and Boris Becker, standing on the left of the picture, next to Djokovic):
Djokovic Wawrinka Practice

Next to Djokovic accompanied by Becker + 1, Wawrinka looked a little lonely:
Sad Wawrinka

Yet and still, Federer proved once again that even in practice he remains the biggest draw at the age of 33. The crowd filled the side of the Court 15, and the top row of the Grandstand, similar to the Djokovic-Wawrinka practice the day before, except much more packed and “squeezed.” On top of everything else, Federer was not even practicing with another top 10 player, but with the ex-touring pro Vince Spadea:
Federer practice

Speaking of attendance and spectators… Considering how many empty stands we see in the beginning of the first day session of any tournament, the attendance at the Center Court for the first match of the day session between Tommy Robredo and Jack Sock exceeded my expectations:
attendance

Heather Watson of England accumulated some valuable points in Montreal, coming from the qualifying and reaching third round in the main draw. She did qualify again for the main draw here over the weekend, but suffered a heart-breaking loss this afternoon against Shuai Zhang of China – 6/3 4/6 7/5. Watson (below) saved two match points at 5-4 in the third set and managed to break Zhang’s serve, only to get her serve broken again and lose.
Watson

Following Watson and Zhang, Nicolas Mahut (FR) and Marinko Matosevic (AUS) squared off on Court 3. Matosevic broke Mahut on the first game of the match, and that would be the only break of the match as Matosevic won 6/4 7/6. Both players showed some terrific shot-making skills (photo below – Mahut making an athletic backhand volley winner) and there was plenty of fireworks and entertainment.
Mahut

Matosevic complained about line calls (in most cases, he was right), Mahut complained about Matosevic taking too much time between points while the latter was complaining and talking to his corner (in this case, Mahut was right), yet the referee gave the first time violation warning to Mahut which aggravated the tension further. In fact, the referee seemed to lose control of the match at different times, at one point calling the score not realizing that the line judge called it out, then trying to convince Matosevic that he heard the call and overruled it. Naturally, that argument went nowhere with Matosevic who frequently asked to his corner “Why is every call against me?” and to the referee or to the sky “What is going on?”
Matosevic

The worst moment came when Matosevic served an ace on match point, at 6-4 in the tiebreaker, had his arms in the air, only to hear the referee call the ball out. Matosevic said “Come on” loudly to the referee once and looked for help to Mahut who wanted no part of this discussion. At the end, Matosevic went back and served a second serve and Mahut missed the return which gave the Australian the match. As soon as the ball sailed out, Matosevic yelled, as loud as he can, a couple of expletives that start with the letter “f” toward the referee, walked to the net, shook Mahut’s hand, and left the court without shaking the referee’s hand. It should be interesting to see if Matosevic gets a fine or not.

WTA All-Access promotion took place today with seven of the top 8 seeds in the tournament coming and talking to the media and being around the fans by one of the entries to the stadium court. Agnieska Radwanska could not be there since she is on her way from Montréal to Cincinnati today. But the other seven players interacted with fans and had a great time. Here is a photo from Jelena Jankovic’s session:
IMG_20140811_132404

Then came rain, for about an hour. It stopped around 6:45 PM and the “rain recovery crew” went to work:
SAM_2671

Once matches restarted, I figured that since I started the day by watching the 32-year-old and in-great-shape Tommy Robredo earn his first round victory, I should finish it by watching another 32-year-old and in-great-shape, Flavia Pennetta, earn her victory.
Pennetta

Until next update…

Tactical Analysis: When One Sticks Too Long with the Wrong Strategy

The Case of Caroline Garcia (#48) vs. Timea Babos (#102) – WTA Cincinnati 2014 Qualifying 1st Round – Babos wins 6-4 6-3

SAM_2542

When Caroline Garcia (picture above) stepped on the court for her first round match in Cincinnati, she was on paper the clear favorite as the seventh seed against the Hungarian Timea Babos who was one of the lowest-ranked players in the qualifying draw. After getting broken in the first game and subsequently going down 2-0, Garcia won three games in a row and went up 3-2. At that point, everything seemed in order for the 20-year-old French player. In that stretch of three games won by Garcia, one of them was a return game in which Garcia hit a forehand return winner and one other return that forced an error from her opponent. Those were aggressive returns, taken very early, with Garcia being at least two or three steps inside the baseline. In other words, being extra-aggressive on returns worked for that one game. Ironically, it would also play a major role in Garcia’s downfall over the duration of the match. Garcia insisted on going for too much on returns, often trying to step far inside the baseline, especially on second serves, to hit return winners that frequently resulted in direct errors such as the one you can see in the clip below:

Click here (11 seconds)

It is possible that Garcia is currently working on improving her aggressive returns in the long run and that in order to attain that goal her coach told her to keep going for the returns regardless of how many errors she may make. If that is the case, I am usually for the idea of sacrifice in the short run if that points to the possibility of adding a new dimension to the game in the long run. However, this tournament was not the right time. Cincinnati is a WTA Premier Tier event. Garcia has been in the mix with the likes of Eugenie Bouchard, Simona Halep, Garbine Muguruza, and the rest of the “new generation” as an up-and-coming player in the last couple of years. She cannot afford the luxury to lose a match in a tournament of such importance, a match in which she would have greatly improved her chances had she simply made one minor adjustment: move back on the returns and put the return in play to construct the point later. Furthermore, Garcia’s confidence cannot be that high since she has recorded mixed results this year so far, on the heels of a very promising 2013 campaign. This was a case where the importance of winning the current match trumped the promise of a long-term goal. Going for broke on every return simply did not translate into winning games.

In any case, Garcia kept on taking high risks on returns, either making direct mistakes (such as the one in the clip earlier) or putting herself in a defensive position from the first shot in the point because her return was turned out to be dismal. In the following clip, we see just that, Garcia trying to do too much with the return on a first serve by Babos, and resulting in a bad return that allows Babos to force an error out of Garcia on the next shot:

Click here (10 seconds)

Ultimately, this wrong strategy gave confidence to Babos who actually started the match not serving particularly well – she made all three double faults in the first two serving games –, but as the match progressed, felt more and more comfortable on her serves because she understood that if she hit a solid enough serve she could collect the error from Garcia or get a ball back that she could attack immediately.

SAM_2540Timea Babos

This particular tactic of going for the big return may not have been the only cause for Garcia’s straight-set loss, but there is no doubt that it had a snow ball effect as Babos felt less and less pressure on her serve. In the first set, Babos faced four break points, whereas in the second set, there was only one that was wasted away once again by Garcia’s missed return. Considering what little it takes to turn matches around in tennis, this was a good case of a match where Garcia could have moved back a bit and modified her returns to put the ball back in play. Perhaps, it could have been enough to win the match and build some momentum going into the U.S. Open in two weeks from now. I have been a fan of Garcia for a couple of years in that I believe she has the athleticism and the fundamentals to transform into a big-time player in the women’s circuit. However, this match was a step in the wrong direction, one that should indicate to her camp that setbacks of this type can be avoided with a little flexibility in the tactical preparation.

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